Forex News
- The Australian Dollar depreciates as Trump imposes a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.
- Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence rose 0.1% in February, reaching 92.2 in January from 92.1 prior.
- The US Dollar appreciates amid the rising cautious mood surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as downward pressure mounted on the AUD/USD pair. The decline followed US President Donald Trump’s decision to expand steel and aluminum tariffs by 25% to include all imports, nullifying trade agreements with key US allies, including Australia. The White House confirmed that all import tax exclusions had been removed and indicated that further action on microchips and vehicles would be considered in the coming weeks.
Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence increased by 0.1% in February, reaching 92.2 from 92.1 in January. Despite the slight uptick, consumer confidence remained subdued due to ongoing concerns over household finances and the rising cost of living.
Market sentiment suggests growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower its 4.35% cash rate at its next meeting in February. Traders now see a 95% probability of a cut to 4.10%, as recent data indicates that underlying inflation has eased more rapidly than the RBA anticipated. This has prompted several major Australian banks to shift their forecast for the first rate cut from May to February.
Australian Dollar declines amid rising cautious tone surrounding Fed’s policy outlook
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, rises above 108.00 at the time of writing. The Greenback receives support as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now expected to keep interest rates steady this year, following January’s jobs report released on Friday, which indicated slowing job growth but a lower Unemployment Rate.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 143,000 in January, significantly below December’s revised figure of 307,000 and the market expectation of 170,000. However, the Unemployment Rate declined slightly to 4% in January from 4.1% in December.
- US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K for the week ending January 31, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print surpasses initial estimates of 213K and was higher than the previous week's revised tally of 208K (from 207K).
- Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee mentioned on Friday that inconsistent policy approaches from the US government cause a high level of economic uncertainty that makes it difficult for the Fed to draw a bead on where the economy, and inflation specifically, are likely heading.
- Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors member Adriana Kugler noted that US growth and economic activity remain healthy overall, but noted that progress toward the Fed's inflation goals has been somewhat lopsided, per Reuters.
- In an interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that he would move towards supporting further rate cuts if they see good inflation data and the labor market stays strong
- China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at an annual rate of 0.5% in January, up from 0.1% in December and exceeding the market forecast of 0.4%. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation rose 0.7% in January, compared to December’s flat reading of 0%, though it fell short of the expected 0.8% increase.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar tests nine-day EMA, followed by 0.6250
The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6270 on Tuesday, testing the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart. A break below these levels could weaken short-term price momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish bias is active.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may explore the region around the eight-week high of 0.6330, last reached on January 24.
The AUD/USD pair tests immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6264 level, followed by the 14-day EMA of 0.6258. A decisive break below these levels could weaken the short-term price momentum, potentially pushing the pair toward 0.6087—the lowest level since April 2020, recorded on February 3.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.06% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.06% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.03% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.03% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.06% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.16% | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.02% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.09% | 0.02% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.12% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5635 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
- Trump raised aluminum and steel tariffs to 25%, from a previous 10%.
- The RBNZ is expected to deliver a third consecutive supersized rate cut later this month.
The NZD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.5635 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The concerns about potential trade wars under US President Donald Trump administration continue to undermine the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Later on Tuesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony will be in the spotlight.
Trump said on Sunday that he will announce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US on Monday that would affect “everybody’, including its largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico.
New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis said, "New Zealand is distinguished in that we have a very balanced and complementary trade relationship with the United States.” Willis further stated that she hopes to maintain a warm relationship with the US in the future. Investors will closely watch the developments surrounding new tariff policies. Any signs of escalating trade war tensions could drag the Kiwi lower against the USD.
Furthermore, the rising expectation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a third consecutive supersized rate cut later this month contributes to the NZD’s downside. The markets have priced in nearly a 92% odds that the RBNZ will deliver a 50 basis points (bps) rate reduction on February 19.
RBNZ FAQs
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1716 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1707 and 7.3067 Reuters estimates.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
New Zealand’s Finance Minister, Nicola Willis, said on Monday that the country has a very balanced and complementary trade relationship with the United States. Willis added that she hopes to maintain a warm relationship in the future.
Key quotes
New Zealand is distinguished in that we have a very balanced and complementary trade relationship with the United States.
Hopeful of pursuing ongoing positive trade relationships with it.
Market reaction
At the press time, the NZD/USD pair is down 0.15% on the day to trade at 0.5635.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said late Monday that companies will struggle to raise prices this year as consumers are hit by job losses and spending softens, per the Financial Times.
Key quotes
UK inflation is becoming less of a threat as corporate pricing power weakens.
I can see pricing coming very close to [2 percent] target-consistent [levels] in the year ahead.
Demand conditions are quite a bit weaker than has been the case — and I have changed my mind on that.
Market reaction
At the press time, the GBP/USD pair is down 0.08% on the day to trade at 1.2355.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
- WTI price extends the recovery to around $72.10 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Tariff uncertainty might cap the WTI’s upside in the near term.
- Iran called for OPEC to unite against potential US oil sanctions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.15 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher despite ongoing tariff concerns.
WTI price recovers some ground, even though oil traders remain worried that US President Donald Trump might start a trade war. On Monday, US President Donald Trump expanded his steel and aluminum tariffs to cover all imports, effectively canceling deals with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan and others.
"It's tariff uncertainty which is the name of the game. This affects risk appetite in general and has spillover effects into oil," said Harry Tchilinguiran at Onyx Capital.
The market continues to digest the news and assess the potential impacts of tariffs on global trade. Any signs of rising trade war tensions could drag the WTI price lower as tariffs could dampen global economic growth and energy demand.
On the other hand, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict could underpin the black gold. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian urged OPEC members to unite against possible US sanctions on the major oil producer after Trump said he would seek to drive Tehran’s oil exports to zero.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump expanded his steel and aluminum tariffs to cover all imports, effectively canceling deals with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, and others.
According to a White House official, the new executive order builds off the 25% tariff on steel and the 10% tariff the first Trump administration imposed in 2018 by raising duties, closing loopholes, and eliminating exemptions.
Market reaction
The US Dollar attracts some buyers following this headline. At the press time, the DXY is up 0.05% on the day to trade at 108.37.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
- EUR/USD lost another 0.3% on Monday, falling back into 1.0300.
- US President Trump signed off on sweeping tariffs late Monday.
- US inflation data to dominate market flows this week.
EUR/USD declined around one-third of one percent on Monday, falling back into the 1.0300 handle as market sentiment takes a knee. Investors are awaiting clearer signals from central bank policymakers, but a fresh batch of executive orders from US President Donald Trump regarding tariffs make the outlook murkier.
Read more: US President Donald Trump signs off on 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum
European data is broadly limited this week; an appearance from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde failed to move the needle in any meaningful way, a routine outing that has become the norm for talking points from ECB policymakers. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will be giving his latest testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee. Fed Chair Powell is expected to face questions about how the Fed will react to the ebb and flow of President Trump’s tariff threats.
German final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for the year ended January are due on Thursday, alongside pan-EU Gross Domestic Product figures for the fourth quarter slated for Friday. Neither datapoint is expected to move much.
The key datapoints this week will be US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slated for Wednesday, and US Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Thursday.
EUR/USD price forecast
Three straight down days for EUR/USD has put the pair in pace to rediscover recent technical lows. Fiber flubbed a technical recovery above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in late January, and bids have been on a steady grind lower ever since. The 1.0200 handle is up next as the bears slowly crush bulls out of the picture.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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